Using a Doomsday Clock to Track Technical Debt Risk

Every software team has technical debt, and those who say they don’t are lying. Even for new software, there are always items in the backlog that need attention, be they architecture trade-offs or areas of the code which are not as easy to maintain as they should be. Unless you have unlimited time and resources to deliver a project, which in reality is never, you will always have items such as these in the backlog that need to be addressed, outside of new features that need to be implemented. Mostly, but not always, technical debt items are deprioritized over such new features that generate visible outcomes, value for the customer, and revenue for the business. In my opinion, this is OK – technical debt in software projects is a fact of life, and as long as it is not recklessly introduced, and there is a plan to address it later, it is fine. It is good to look at how technical debt gets introduced. In my experience, it is mostly down to time constraints i.e. having a delivery deadline that means trade-offs must be made. Martin Fowler introduced us to the Technical Debt Quadrant which is a nice way of looking at how technical debt gets introduced. You would hope that you never end up anywhere in the top left.

tech debt quadrant

There are a few different ways of tracking technical debt, such as keeping items as labeled stories in your JIRA backlog, or using a separate technical debt register. The most important thing is that you actually track these items – and wherever you track them it is critical to continuously review and prioritize them. It is also key that you address items as you iterate on new releases of your software. When you do not address technical debt and use all your team’s work cycles to add new features (and also likely new technical debt), you will come to a tipping point. You will find it takes ever longer to add new features, or worse some technical debt items may begin to impact your production software – think of that performance trade-off you made a few years ago when you were sure the software workload would never reach this scale – now it has, and customers are being impacted. So, neglecting technical debt items that have a potential to be very impactful to your customer base is not a good idea, and these are the type of items I will discuss here.

Recently I was reading about the Doomsday clock. If you are not familiar with this:

Founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who had helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The decision to move (or to leave in place) the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock is made every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 13 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies in other domains.

So I thought, why not take this model and use it to track not existential risks to humanity, but technical debt items that pose a known catastrophic risk to a software product or service, be it a complex desktop or mobile application or a large cloud service. The items I am considering here are not small issues such as ‘I made a change and ignored the two failing unit tests‘. While these issues are still important, the items I am thinking about here are things that would cause a catastrophic failure of your software in a production environment should a certain condition or set of conditions arise, let’s take a two examples.

For the first example, let us consider a popular desktop application that relies on a third party library to operate successfully. From inception, the application has used the free version of the library, and there has always been an item in the backlog to migrate to the enterprise version to ensure long term support. Now there is a hard date for end of support six months from now, and you need to migrate to the enterprise version before that date to continue to receive security patches – which are regular, or you risk exposing your customer base.

Let us think about another example, consider a popular cloud service. The service uses a particular relational database that is key to the operation of the service and the customer value it provides. For sometime, the scaling limits of this database have been known, and due to growth and expansion into international markets, these limits are closer than ever.

The main thing here is that I am talking about known technical debt items that will cause catastrophe at some point in the future. It is important here to draw the distinction between those and unknown items to which teams will always need to be reactive.

The method I had in mind for tracking such items, taking the Doomsday Clock analogy, was as follows:

  1. You take your top X (in order of priority) technical debt items – big hitting items like those described above, you might have 5, you might even have 10.
  2. The doomsday clock starts at the same number of minutes from midnight as you have items – e.g. if you have 5 items you start at 11:55pm.
  3. Each time one of these items causes a real issue, or an issue is deemed imminent, move the time 1 minute closer to midnight. Moving the clock closer to midnight should be decided by your most senior engineers and architects.
  4. The closer you get to midnight, the more danger you are in of having these items effect your customer base or revenue.

Reaching midnight manifests in a catastrophic production issue, unhappy customers, and potential loss of revenue. Executives, especially those without an engineering background, can easily grasp the severity of a situation if you explain using the above method in my opinion. This method also keeps a focus by Product Management or whoever decides your road-map on the key items that need to be addressed – it is easy to address the small items like fixing that unit test, and think you are addressing technical debt, but in reality you are just fooling yourself and your team.

How does your team track these items?


If you are an Iron Maiden fan, their song ‘2 Minutes to Midnight’ is a reference to the Doomsday clock being set to 2 minutes to midnight in 1953, the closest it had been at that time, after the US and Soviet Union tested H-bombs within nine months of one another.